For traders to know when to trade we
will reveal below five major news events that have the biggest impact on the
forex market. The convenience of these events is that they have a constant
schedule and may create a huge volatility on the financial markets.
1. Manufacturing
PMI. German and French PMIs are the most important European leading
indicators. They are released in one day with just a slight delay between
reports. Moreover, they have some sort of correlation between each other, so
the first one is more important. Chinese Manufacturing PMI is also perfect for
trading as it hugely affects risk currency pairs like Eur/Usd and Aud/Usd.
2. GDP reports. These are
very important reports that have a big impact on the forex market. Usually a
GDP report comes out every quarter. The exception is only for Canadian GDP
which is released every month. There are 3 GDP reports in the US: Advanced,
Preliminary and Final GDP. The first one makes the most impact on the forex market.
3. Monthly employment reports.
The most awaited US reports are NFP employment change and the unemployment
rate. The ADP report which represents the estimates of the official data comes
2 days earlier than the official report and it also can have an impact on the
forex market. However, it needs more deviation from the estimates to change the
mood of the financial markets. Australian and European unemployment reports are
also closely monitored by traders.
4. Interest rates decisions.
Only those decisions that differ from the expectations increase the volatility
on the forex market. However, the biggest trends usually happen after the
official data release during press conferences which are usually translated
live over the internet. Traders are looking for clues from central banks
leaders that could suggest the future of interest rates. Dovish tones lead to a
currency sell-off and hawkish tones make the currency stronger.
5. Inflation reports. Inflation
reports usually do not impact the eur/usd; however, we can’t ignore them in
this article. The thing is, that inflation of the US and European economies
usually comes in range of 2-3%. However, central banks only take action when
inflation comes outside of these borders but for the past ten years it happened
only during the global financial crises and recovered rather
quickly. Thereby, small deviations within the desired range usually come
unnoticed by the market participants. Moreover, inflation is calculated monthly
for these economies making the impact lower than for Australian and New Zealand
economies where the inflation is calculated on a quarterly basis. Thanks to
that, the CPI reports of these economies create nice trends on the forex
market.
Trading the above events is surely
much safer than trading other less significant news. It is always a good idea
to monitor them and trade accordingly whether you are a technical or
fundamental trader. These events can have an impact on the markets for a long
period of time, up to the next 24 hours, so there is no need to rush and close
the trades with small profits during important shifts in the economy. However,
sometimes it can be hard to predict the exact outcome of the news. So, even if
a stop loss gets hit soon after the news release, it is still a good idea to reverse
the position and trade in the opposite direction together with the market. The
volatility of the markets increases so high during these events so the price
simply can’t stop and calm down. This significant regularity makes it simple
for traders to “ride” the trends during news releases.
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