Weekly Report

Market analysis

Highlights:

• EUR/USD : Retreats as dollar rebounds
• GBP/USD : Backs off two-week high
• USD/JPY : Bounces back amid fresh rate hike hopes
• USD/CAD : Climbs after Canadian data disappoints
• Gold : Falls amid Dollar rally
• Crude Oil : Slips but remains close to 7-week highs

EUR/USD

Retreats as dollar rebounds

The EUR/USD moved into the new week at 1.1320 near its highest price this quarter. The euro was up almost 1.5% on the week and 4.25% on a year to date basis. As traders are out of their office on summer vacation volumes are expected to be light and politicians are also on holiday as well as bankers which should leave the news light. The dollar recovered some poise after hitting seven-week lows against the yen and the euro earlier this week while equity indices struggled on both sides of the Atlantic as a six-session rally for oil prices ran out of steam. In the euro zone, data showed that the consumer price index fell 0.6% in July, compared to an initial estimate for a 0.2% rise. Year-on-year, consumer prices rose 0.2%, in line with expectations. Spot kept the composure despite final inflation figures for the month of July have contracted 0.6% on a monthly basis, a tad more than preliminary prints showed (-0.5%). On an annualized basis, consumer prices in the region rose 0.2%, matching estimates.

On the week, the single currency rose 1.5% against the dollar, the second weekly gain in a row. In the week ahead, traders will also be looking to Tuesday’s survey data on euro zone business activity for fresh signals on the health of the region's economy in wake of Britain's vote to exit the European Union earlier in the summer.

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التقرير اليومي الاولي اوروبا

اليوم:الأربعاء, 10 أغسطس 2016

اليورو: يستمر في تحقيق المكاسب على حساب تراجع الدولار

حقق اليورو استفادة من ضعف مستويات الدولار في أسواق العملات ليرتفع خلال تداولات اليوم الأربعاء للجلسة الثانية على التوالي مع تزايد إقبال المستثمرين على العملات الرئيسية نتيجة التصحيح السلبي الذي سيطر على الدولار خلال هذا الأسبوع. ارتفاع مستويات اليورو يأتي مع تعافي الطلب على العملات الرئيسية بعد موجة الهبوط التي سيطرت عليهم خلال الأسبوع الماضي، يأتي هذا بالتزامن مع انتعاش مؤشرات الأسهم العالمية في ظل تحسن توقعات النمو في الاقتصاد الأمريكي بالإضافة إلى صدور بعض البيانات الاقتصادية الإيجابية عن الصين.

تقنياً: استأنف زوج اليورو مقابل الدولار تداولاته الإيجابية بعد الارتكاز على مستوى 1.1060، ليتخطى المستوى المحوري لمؤشر MACD ويبني قاعدة دعم فوقه، مما يعزز استمرار توقعاتنا للاتجاه الصاعد خلال الفترة القادمة، بانتظار اختبار مستوى 1.1200 مبدئياً، مع التذكير بأن اختراق هذا المستوى سيمد مكاسب الزوج لتصل إلى 1.1350 كمحطة رئيسية تالية. وبالتالي، سيبقى الميل الصاعد مرجحاً على المدى اللحظي والقصير ما لم نشهد كسراً واضحاً وثباتاً دون مستوى 1.1060.

توصياتنا: الشراء عند 1.1140 و الأغلاق فوق مستويات 1.1180 لجني الأرباح. (توقيت الرسم البياني: 1 ساعة)

WEEKLY REPORT

Market analysis

Date: Monday, 1st of August 2016

Highlights:

• EUR/USD : Gains ground after E.Z. inflation report
• GBP/USD : Loses momentum after hitting 1.3300
• USD/JPY : Yen tumbles 1% on Japan stimulus reports
• USD/CAD : Erases gains after U.S., Canadian GDP data
• Gold : Soars to 2-week high as dollar falls amid weak U.S GDP
• Crude Oil : Falls to fresh 3-month lows amid supply glut worries

MAJOR DATA COMING OUT THIS WEEK (Time zone GMT)

Date	Time	Event		Forecast	Previous
7/31/2016	All Day	AUD	Bank Holiday
8/1/2016	1:00am	CNY	Manufacturing PMI	50.1	50
8/1/2016	1:00am	CNY	Non-Manufacturing PMI		53.7
8/1/2016	1:15am	USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
8/1/2016	1:45am	CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI	48.8	48.6
8/1/2016	All Day	CHF	Bank Holiday
8/1/2016	7:15am	EUR	Spanish Manufacturing PMI	51.6	52.2
8/1/2016	8:30am	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	49.1	49.1
8/1/2016	All Day	CAD	Bank Holiday
8/1/2016	2:00pm	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	53.1	53.2
8/2/2016	1:30am	AUD	Building Approvals m/m	0.90%	-5.20%
8/2/2016	1:30am	AUD	Trade Balance	-2.00B	-2.22B
8/2/2016	3:00am	NZD	Inflation Expectations q/q		1.60%
8/2/2016	4:30am	AUD	Cash Rate	1.50%	1.75%
8/2/2016	4:30am	AUD	RBA Rate Statement
8/2/2016	7:00am	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	-70.0K	-124.3K
8/2/2016	8:30am	GBP	Construction PMI	44.2	46
8/2/2016	12:30pm	USD	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.10%	0.20%
8/2/2016	12:30pm	USD	Personal Spending m/m	0.30%	0.40%
8/2/2016	Tentative	NZD	GDT Price Index		0.00%
8/3/2016	1:45am	CNY	Caixin Services PMI	52.9	52.7
8/3/2016	8:30am	GBP	Services PMI	47.4	47.4
8/3/2016	12:15pm	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	171K	172K
8/3/2016	2:00pm	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	56	56.5
8/3/2016	2:30pm	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		1.7M
8/4/2016	1:30am	AUD	Retail Sales m/m	0.30%	0.20%
8/4/2016	11:00am	GBP	BOE Inflation Report
8/4/2016	11:00am	GBP	MPC Official Bank Rate Votes	0-9-0	0-1-8
8/4/2016	11:00am	GBP	Monetary Policy Summary
8/4/2016	11:00am	GBP	Official Bank Rate	0.25%	0.50%
8/4/2016	11:00am	GBP	Asset Purchase Facility	375B	375B
8/4/2016	11:00am	GBP	MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes	0-0-9	0-0-9
8/4/2016	11:30am	GBP	BOE Gov Carney Speaks
8/4/2016	12:30pm	USD	Unemployment Claims	265K	266K
8/4/2016	2:00pm	USD	Factory Orders m/m	-1.80%	-1.00%
8/5/2016	1:30am	AUD	RBA Monetary Policy Statement
8/5/2016	6:00am	EUR	German Factory Orders m/m	0.50%	0.00%
8/5/2016	7:00am	CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves		609B
8/5/2016	7:30am	GBP	Halifax HPI m/m	-0.10%	1.30%
8/5/2016	12:30pm	CAD	Employment Change	10.2K	-0.7K
8/5/2016	12:30pm	CAD	Trade Balance	-2.6B	-3.3B
8/5/2016	12:30pm	CAD	Unemployment Rate	6.90%	6.80%
8/5/2016	12:30pm	USD	Average Hourly Earnings m/m	0.20%	0.10%
8/5/2016	12:30pm	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	180K	287K
8/5/2016	12:30pm	USD	Unemployment Rate	4.80%	4.90%
8/5/2016	2:00pm	CAD	Ivey PMI	51.9	51.7

Disclaimer

√ Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) : MACD uses different exponential moving averages to generate buy and sell indicators. The lower pane of the chart shows two lines: a Differential Line and a Signal Line. The Differential Line is the difference between a short and long-period exponential moving average, typically 12 and 26 periods. The Signal Line is typically a 9-period exponential moving average. When the DL crosses the SL from above, a sell indicator is generated, and when it crosses from below a buy signal is generated.

√ Relative Strength Index (RSI): This is a momentum indicator that measures a security\'s price in relation to itself. The lower pane of the chart shows a line that fluctuates on a scale of 0 to 100. Typically buy signals are generated at 30 and sell signals are generated at 70. If the line breaks 30, the security is oversold, and a reversal is imminent. If the line breaks 70, it is overbought and is due for a downward correction.

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